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Author Topic: Signs & portents math  (Read 7377 times)
Uktena, Snake of Rock Bottom
Posts: 666

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« on: December 13, 2010, 04:46:26 PM »

Bored at work, so I did the math on Signs and Portents (rolling three dice, and dropping the lowest) assuming no boosts/weapon master. I'm sure this has been done on PP forums, but I was bored. Also, I stumbled on a bit of a mathematic revelation, which I will explain in the last paragraph.

In terms of beating a given number, it's *almost* as good as a +2 to attack and damage. I.e. if you need a 7 to hit, and you have a +2, it's 83% likely, but if you have signs and portents, it's 80.5% likely. The results are the same for almost all target numbers. BUT...

With a +2 you are 3 times more likely to roll double ones than with signs and portents.
The maximum roll with a +2 is effectively 14, rather than twelve. You're not likely to be swinging with 2 dice if you're down 13, but it could help for damage rolls.

The really interesting bit, I think, was the realization that signs and portents makes criticals happen on about 25% of the time. I always figured that the criticals would be no more likely under s&p than normally, because if the lower two numbers are the same, but the highest is different, you are forced to take the highest. Therefore, any criticals gained by the highest two being the same number, would be canceled out by the lost "lowest two" criticals. However, observing the calculations, I found that there is a huge bloat at the top of the Bell curve when taking s&p into account. 50 out of 216 rolls will result in doubles after dropping the lowest die. Of those 16 are double sixes, 13 are double fives, and 10 are double fours.

Learning is fun! Up next, Starcrossed. Fuck Starcrossed.

Žaš er gott. Ég var gert fyrir bardaga, og minn skal vera öldin kappans. Lįtašu önnur goš drottnu žegar barįttan er buin. Ég skal riša gaulaš ofvišriš, og deyja į sķšastrum miklum storminum.
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« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2011, 12:08:51 PM »


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